Aruba is an autonomous territory of the Netherlands with its own constitution and government with Holland determining foreign and defence policies. Guyanese earn on average about US $1,500 a month but cost of living is higher compared with the US. Everything on the island is imported as virtually nothing grows there although enterprising Guyanese use creative ways to grow vegetables and fruits. The local currency is the Florin which trades at about 1.75 to the dollar.

The island’s electoral system is similar to Guyana’s – PR. There are 21 seats in the legislature and elections are held every four years. The ruling party, MEP, has 11 seats and feels confident of making gains. Prime Minister Nelson Oduber feels he will be returned as PM. The official opposition, AVP, has 8 seats with two other parties a seat each. Opposition Leader Mike Eman is confident he will replace Oduber as PM.

The Guyanese voters on the island are small and it is not certain if they will vote; only citizens (not residents) could vote. Guyanese did not show much voter enthusiasm in my conversations with them. However, Surinamese ethnic are enthused about voting and most said they plan to vote for change. Other groups like Colombians, Venezuelans, and Dominicans (from Dominican Republic) are more excited about voting though many said they cannot vote. Immigration is an issue in the election and both parties are trying to walk the middle lane so as not to upset any group though natives would like to see immigration from Spanish countries curtailed. Guyanese and other West Indians said they do not experience ethnic animosity with natives.

The immigrant groups are leaning towards the opposition which has promised to do away with onerous and expensive annual registrations and work permits to remain on the island. Based on my interviews of Arubans at random a majority of them want change and many who voted for the MEP in 2005 said they have lost confidence in it.

However, a lot of disenchanted voters said they have given up hope on politics and will not vote. This happens to be a worldwide trend as I found in elections in other states. Voter abstentions will benefit the MEP. So it will not be surprising if the MEP gets a reduced number of votes and still emerge victorious. The trend though and the feeling Arubans displayed is one in which they will vote out for change based on economic dissatisfaction which is widespread.

I will not rule out a coalition government as disenchanted voters could break for the mini-parties to prevent the two major parties from dominating the system.

Although small, the Guyanese vote could help determine the outcome of seats as small percentage fractions for the parties could make the difference on seat allocations in the PR system as we in Guyana know from the elections of 1992 thru 2006. So I hope they vote.
VISHNU BISRAM