WORLD leaders, including those in the Caribbean, are preparing for Copenhagen in December to reach consensus on a new global climate change agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol which will set targets for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

This will require the political will of all countries, particularly the industrialised nations, to adopt and implement ambitious plans for reducing greenhouse emissions, which are the gases that trap heat in the atmosphere for a long period, leading to a gradual warming of the earth’s surface.

Before meeting in the Danish capital, leaders will assemble this week at the United Nations, in New York, to address the issue of global climate change, described as the greatest threat facing humankind today.

The Caribbean plans to be well represented at the New York meeting and in Copenhagen, as the adverse impact of climate change has already begun manifesting itself on sectors of the economy and on our natural habitat.

Even though the Caribbean and other Small Island Developing Nations (SIDS) are low emitters of greenhouse gases, they are the areas that face the greatest risk of climate change impact, according to scientists.

Based on current realities and some horrific future modelling of climate change impact, Caribbean countries are pressing world leaders in Copenhagen to agree on reduction targets.

These include long-term stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels which will ensure that global average surface temperature increases be limited to well below 1.5° C of pre-industrial levels; that global greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2015; that global Co2 reductions of at least 45 per cent by 2020 and greenhouse gas emissions be cut by more than 95 per cent of 1990 CO2 levels by 2050.

The World Bank estimates that annual economic damage from climate change in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) member countries will be around US$11 billion by 2080, or 11 per cent of the grouping’s gross domestic product.

Nearly a fifth of the losses is likely to be linked to the specific effects of sea-level rise, loss of land, and damage to tourism infrastructure, housing, buildings and other infrastructure.

The loss of tourism expenditure — the lifeblood of the vast majority of island states — is projected at US$4 billion, and climate change-related disasters, such as hurricanes and floods, at US$5billion.

Based on this possible scenario for the Caribbean and those of us who live here, it is vital that our leaders are resolute in their position at the December high-level conference, and not allow the industrialised nations to shirk their collective responsibility to planet Earth.

It is heartening, though, that leaders of the Major Economies Forum (MEF), collectively responsible for more than 75% of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, agreed at their recent meeting in L’Aquila, Italy, that the increase in the global average temperature should not exceed pre-industrial levels by more than two degrees Celsius — although their general commitments fell short of what was required by science.

According to Rajendra Pachauri, Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the outcome of the meeting was a bit of a dichotomy, as the leaders of the largest emitters had agreed to a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% up to 2050, and that the temperature increase should be limited to 2º C.

However, they did not take into account the IPCC’s recommendation that in order to achieve the 2º C goal, emissions should peak by 2015.

Given the urgency of establishing consensus, Grenada’s Prime Minister, Tillman Thomas, who was invited by UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon to address this week’s UN Conference, called on all small states to stand together to confront the issues that have the potential to damage its ecosystems, limit land-based agricultural production, and significantly deplete marine resources and fishing stock.

Prior to attending the UN Conference and a meeting of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), chaired by Grenada, Mr. Thomas said the situation facing small-island states is a matter of survival, given the impact of sea level rise and temperature increases.

Grenada, incidentally, hosted the Executive Board of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) on the island in July for its 48th Session.

Executive Board Chair, Lex de Jonge noted that by holding the Board’s meeting on the island, some light was shed on the CDM in the region.

The CDM is one of the financial mechanisms established under the Kyoto Protocol, and has the dual objectives of facilitating developed countries with meeting their emission reduction targets whilst promoting sustainable development.

Since the first Board meeting in 2001, over 1,100 projects have been registered, with a further 4,000 projects in the CDM pipeline. The English-speaking Caribbean, however, has only one CDM registered project — unlike Brazil, China and India, where the vast majority of the projects are concentrated.

It is anticipated that the CDM will generate over 2.7 billion certified emission reductions (CERs), equivalent to the removal of 2.7billion tonnes of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere by the end of the first commitment period in 2012.

In 2007, the primary and secondary markets for CERs were worth US$13 billion. Currently, 2% of the proceeds of the CDM are used to finance the Adaptation Fund.

Whatever the outcome of the Copenhagen conference, our countries must continue to embark on sustainable development and environmental protection initiatives.

Guyana, for instance, recently unveiled a draft Low-Carbon Development Strategy, which ambitiously sets out a pathway to a new economy which builds future prosperity that is low-deforestation, low-carbon and climate resilient.

Set within the country’s response to climate change, the strategy is broadly hinged on Guyana deploying its vast forests to mitigate global climate change.

The key focus areas of the strategy are investments in low carbon economic infrastructure, investments in high potential low carbon sectors, expanding access to services and new economic opportunities for indigenous and forest communities, and transforming the village economy as well as improving social services and economic opportunities for the wider Guyanese population, and investments in climate change adaptation infrastructure.

Island nations in the Caribbean should also not see their size, or the fact that they are small emitters of greenhouse gases, as reason for not considering a broad strategy for sustainable development and have this issue on their political agenda.

The Maldives, a chain of low-lying islets in the Indian Ocean threatened by sea level rise, is aiming to become the first carbon-neutral nation by fully switching to the use of renewable energy within a decade.

The plan includes more than 150 wind turbines, hundreds of thousands of square meters of rooftop solar panels, and a power plant burning coconut husks. Batteries would provide power when energy from the wind and sun are unavailable. Fossil-fuel-powered vehicles and boats would be replaced over time by electric models.

Discussions on climate change have also opened up another raging debate on whether an economic cost should be imposed on imported products from countries that don’t curb their emissions.

In an OP-ED last week, Alicia Bárcena, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), said there is already strong evidence of how new “climatic-economic” standards tend to include unilateral trade regulations, based on the carbon footprint of traded goods and services.

In June, the United States House of Representatives approved the ‘Clean Energy and Security Act’, which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17% in 2020 with regard to 2005.

To protect the U.S. economy, according to Ms. Bárcena, this law — which is still pending approval in the Senate — establishes compensatory tariffs on carbon-intensive goods, such as steel, cement, paper and glass imported from countries the United States considers are not doing enough to reduce their emissions.

In France, the information on the carbon footprint of products and their packaging, as well as their consumption or potential environmental impact, will be mandatory, as of January 1, 2011.

In October 2008, the United Kingdom created the ‘Publicly Available Standard’ to estimate greenhouse gas emissions (GGE) associated with the life cycle of products and services, and drafted the Code of Good Practices for the emission and reduction of GGE.

Ms. Bárcena said these unilateral measures could mean that the efforts and responsibility for mitigating the effects of climate change may shift from north to south, and could turn into a new obstacle to the economic growth of developing countries.

Although awareness about the trade relevance of the carbon footprint is just now emerging, the ECLAC official said the region should take it very seriously in designing its public policies and long-term economic planning.

If addressed in a timely and comprehensive manner, climate change may become a window of opportunity to begin de-carbonising the energy matrix, renew infrastructure, improve productive processes, and gradually move towards a development model with less carbon content.
Some advice well worth pondering upon.