THE outcome of the general elections in India has stunned political observers, pollsters, academics, and even the parties themselves. No one expected the ruling Congress Party and the UPA alliance to do as well as it did when the results were announced. Virtually no one expected Prime Minister Singh to return to office. He is set to be sworn in again later this week as he puts together another coalition but with fewer less allies than the one headed for five years. All predictions (pre-election and exit polls) and assessments on the elections turned out to be wrong.
The Congress party has won 206 seats in the Lok Sabha polls and its allies 56 to give it a total of 262 seats, just seven seats short of a majority. Polls had given it around 150 seats and its allies another 50. I, myself, felt the ruling alliance party would be short of 200 seats. The opposition BJP mustered only 116 seats and its allies 51 seats for a total of 157. Polls gave the BJP a minimum 130 seats and I felt the party would come closer to 150 seats and with allies closer to 200. Several seats were very close in actual votes. So in a sense, the assessment was within a margin of error.
Yet the outcome defied the predictions as no one, not even the Congress Party, expected such an outcome. Everyone was looking for a very fractured parliament in which very little would be accomplished.
What helped the Congress and hurt the opposition was the deep splintering of the votes among the several opposition parties. Several seats saw a four or five way contest in which the Congress got a plurality of the votes and as such won the seats. The Congress always had a solid block of votes. Had the opposition come together, they would have trounced the Congress. However, several parties did not want to work with the Hindu nationalist BJP. Muslims, who accounted for over 13% of the votes, and in some constituencies as much as 30%, voted solidly for the Congress bolstering the party’s chances. Pollsters expected that the Muslim votes would split three ways and allowed the BJP to pick up many seats. Their calculations were wrong.
Almost all the non-Congress parties in the elections lost seats and took a severe beating. The Communists, in particular went down from 62 seats in 2004 to 22 seats now and their effectiveness in parliament would be severely curtailed. In fact, there are calls for the head of Communist Party. The JP went down from 143 seats and its leader has taken responsibility for the defeat by resigning. The caste-based and regional parties also took a trashing and are unlikely to recover. Clearly, the Congress is on an upswing gaining 61 seats and making gains in states where it was felt it had virtually no chance. The election results would embolden the Congress to attempt to rebuild local organisations to capture the state governments in elections.
Pollsters and analysts detected an anti-incumbency factor in the elections and it played out in several seats. Several prominent Ministers of the government, including the Finance and Home Affairs Minister lost their seats. They failed to deliver to their constituents and were punished. Yet the Congress made gains. The party made a smart decision to replace several candidates who voters were angry with and it paid off. However, many of the Congress’s candidates did not win with a majority of votes suggesting the party could be in trouble if the opposition were to unite. The government is expected to be stable with the decisive outcome. It can now proceed to take bold developmental initiatives.
VISHNU BISRAM
