I am in India monitoring the voting process, disappointed that I am not in Trinidad for the Americas Summit where I was expected.  But India is exciting for two major reasons – the IPL cricket games and general elections.

India, the world’s largest democracy, completed its first of five phases of its mammoth general elections on Thursday when voting took place for 124 seats in several seats.  The other phases will take place on a weekly basis so that troops and election workers can be transferred to the remaining of the 543 polling constituencies. 

The opening round had some minor problems and violence in troubled regions but overall voting was problem free as people exercised their franchise. The turnout was around 60% but varied between a low of 45% in some constituencies and a high of 65% in others. The turnout is usually around 60% for most elections.  The parties say they are satisfied with the turnout although it appears to me that after the first phase one party is heading for serious difficulties because several of the seats were supposed to be its strongholds and voters simply did not show up in usual numbers.

Throughout my travels in several states voters told me that they are fed up of voting.  They said voting makes no difference to their lives and this could help explain why turnout was low in the traditional strongholds of one party.

The voting trends, in terms of winners and losers, for the first phase are not known because the Elections Commission, with support from the Supreme Court, has banned publication of exit polls until after the entire voting process is completed in all five phases on May 13.  Counting will take place on May 16 but by then exit polls will give the projected winners and losers. I believe pre-election polls may be wrong again but they may do a better job with the exit polls.

Polls published a day before the elections gave the ruling Congress the edge overall to come out on top.  The other major party, the BJP, a party that advocates Hinduness, is in the opposition. While I do not totally agree with the view of pollsters, I submit that my findings and analysis are showing a hung parliament. No party or major alliance will be able to form a government on its or their own. It is difficult to say whether the Congress or BJP will come out on top.  Polls give the BJP about 135 seats and the Congress around 155 seats. I give the BJP about 146 and Congress about 145.  Both parties are also in several close contests.  So the Congress could in fact make it to 155 although the Congress says its numbers show around 180 seats.  The BJP says its numbers are also trending much higher.  Both parties claim each will defeat the other and its alliance will also defeat the other.  It is difficult to tell which alliance will come out on top. But I won’t be surprised if there is a change in government – a long shot indeed.  Since neither party will come even remotely close to a majority, each will depend on outsiders (regional and caste based parties) to join it in a coalition government.   The Congress has a better chance to form the government but I won’t blank the BJP only because voters like to change their government.  As voting winds down, I will be in a better position to determine which party or alliance will come out on top.
VISHNU BISRAM