(hutchlin@gmail.com)
EVERY year around this time, so-called prophets, soothsayers, psychics and other people who profess to ‘see’ into the future emerge to give their ‘predictions’ on what the next 12 months may hold.

I read them out of curiosity, and as I go through their ‘predictions’, most of the times I can’t help but think that given some of the very logical situations that we face, it isn’t that difficult to put two and two together, as the old folks would say, to come up with some of these ‘prophecies’.

So, as 2009 unfolded, I came upon an article in the Jamaican Gleaner on ‘Prophecies for 2009’, based on “The Word of the Lord, given through Apostle Steve Lyston, Prophetess Bishop Doris Hutchinson, Prophetess Sophia Kerr-Dawes, and Prophetess Triciana Simpson.”

Wow, I thought; some serious divine business here!

There were ‘prophecies’ about wars, coups and famines that will take place during this year. Many are crying in Jamaica for God to move regarding crime or change, according to another prophecy.

Some others include: If America calls an immigration amnesty, restores biblical principles in schools and workplaces, gives tax reductions, there will be great blessings ahead; America is involved in too many wars at one time. It is spreading its resources too thinly. It needs to pull back, refresh and replenish, so it can deal with greater challenges ahead, and another that said countries in the north, Europe and Asia have heavy strongholds on Jamaica. There is also a group in Jamaica being trained to constantly carry out merciless killings.

One that I found particularly interesting is the prophecy that the foundation of St Thomas, Jamaica, is very soft and the entire parish may sink!

God forbid that this happens!

Towards the end of the prophecies was the disclaimer: God reserves the right to hold His hand back from any form of judgment pending, subject to the repentance of nations and individuals.

I was disappointed after reading the 30-odd ‘predictions’, as none addressed specific situations, but instead, were broad and vague and really left everything up to God.

I would have liked the prophets and prophetesses to say how we could reduce the high murder rate in the Caribbean, and how our economies could deal with the challenges of the impact of the global meltdown — two of the top challenges now facing our region.

That might have made me a believer.

But seriously, the high crime rate in 2008 has resulted in the murder of over 2000 people in the Caribbean Community — and I’m just looking at the figures for Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana — and it should be apparent to all that the Ministers of National Security and their advisers, and Commissioners of Police and their teams ought to be looking at different strategies as their current line of attack doesn’t appear to be very effective.

In 2008, 544 murders were committed in Trinidad and Tobago, with 365 being gang-related. A year ago, the murder toll in the twin-island was 386. Ten years ago, the murder rate was 98.

In Jamaica, the murder rate moved from 400 in 1989 to over 1,600 in 2007, and close to that in 2008.

Guyana, in 2008, had to deal with some of the worse massacres in its history, following the killing spree of children and adults in Lusignan, Bartica and Lindo Creek.

Both Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago police have blamed criminal gangs for being responsible for the vast majority of murders and violent crimes in their countries.

The police in Port of Spain estimate that there are 81 gangs operating within the country, with most consisting of 10 – 30 members, and a few others with as much as 50 members.

Quite recently, the police made an open appeal to gang members to give up their guns and ammunition, without facing prosecution.

Acting Police Commissioner, James Philbert said several persons who belonged to gangs have already turned in their weapons and ammunition to the police after accepting God in their lives, with the assistance of religious leaders.

In Jamaica, National Security Minister, Trevor MacMillan claimed that 200 gangs were committing 80 per cent of the island’s crimes, and that there is every indication that they intend to continue expanding their activities.

Already, business owners in Mandeville report that thugs were trying to extort money from them while the incidence of murder increased in that community in 2008.

In terms of the global slowdown, our region is already feeling its impact, given our strong economic and even social ties to the United States.

Although governments have taken several measures to minimise the impact on their economies, there have already been job losses; companies are reporting less revenues as exports have fallen; tourism is taking a big hit with reduced visitors; and domestic stores complaining about less sales.

Also likely to be affected are remittances to the Caribbean from relatives in North America, who no doubt are battling mortgage crises and, in some cases, job losses.

Business investment in the Caribbean is already drying up; currency and foreign exchange reserves are under pressure, while a number of countries around the region will have to look at new sources for capital borrowing, as traditional sources are facing liquidity crisis.

The global slowdown has also been manifesting in another way on our economies as food prices are tumbling, resulting in a downward slide of the inflation rate, while consumer confidence and spending have slumped reflected by reduced bank credit.

Trinidad and Tobago, which gets 64.4% of its revenues and 78 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings from the energy sector, is feeling the big squeeze with the precipitous fall in oil prices, which also impacted on the price of natural gas.

Government has already made a close to US$1 billion cutbacks in the 2008/2009 Budget in anticipation of the shortfall in revenues.

Petrotrin, the state-owned integrated energy company of Trinidad and Tobago, is projecting a loss of TT$200 million (US$34 million) for 2008. Compare their current situation to March 2008, when it reported an after-tax profit of US$176 million, an increase of 162 per cent in its after tax profit for the previous six-month period, attributing it to strong markets for crude oil, natural gas, and refined products.

Petrotrin now faces some tough decisions on trimming its labour force as oil prices continue to slide.

Not so good news from Trinidad on the CARICOM Development Fund as contributions are expected to end — another direct consequence of the global crisis, according to Finance Minister, Karen Nunez-Tesheira and Minister in the Ministry of Finance, Mariano Browne.

Browne was reported in the local media as saying that Trinidad and Tobago’s monthly contribution of TT$6 million (around US$1 million) towards the fund is the largest among CARICOM members. Total annual contribution to the fund is around TT$78 million (US$13 million).

The Fund has been described as a cornerstone of the integration process, aimed at compensating disadvantaged Member States, regions and sectors for any dislocation that may occur as they move towards deeper integration in 2008, however, ended on a positive note for Trinidad and Tobago, as OMEL Energy Trinidad and Tobago Limited — a subsidiary of ONGC Mittal Energy, a joint venture company between ONGC Videsh Limited of India and Mittal Investments Sarl — plans to pump US$500 million in exploring five wells, and constructing production facilities over the next four years in the Caribbean country.

And before locating a drop of oil or gas, OMEL Energy paid a US$30 million ‘signature bonus’ to the Trinidad and Tobago government, following the formal signing of the production sharing contract last week.

With no indication as to when the global slowdown will begin to be reversed, governments in our region will have to demonstrate maturity and careful and prudent planning in everything that they do to minimise the potential severe negative economic and social impact as much as possible on their populations.

Unfortunately for Trinidad and Tobago, excessive public spending will continue throughout this new year, as the country has committed itself to host two international summits — the Summit of the Americas in April, and the Commonwealth Heads of Government conference in November.