Analysis by Rickey Singh         
THE CARIBBEAN Community’s failure to reach a consensus on a candidate for the post of new Secretary General of the 54-member Commonwealth could prove a blessing for Africa, in particular the southern African state of Botswana.

While two CARICOM states—Dominica and Trinidad and Tobago have candidates of their own-Britain’s Baroness Scotland in the case of Dominica—and Dr Bhoe Tiwarie, Minister of Planning and Economic Affairs for T&T-two others (Barbados and Belize) have been vacillating, resulting in a consensus proving  elusive.
Not surprisingly though, quite disappointingly for Community Heads of Government leaders who have been supporting his candidacy, there came this past week the announced withdrawal by Sir Ronald Sanders from the contest.
That unexpected decision by the former long-serving diplomat of Antigua and Barbuda and current columnist for some regional and foreign media, came as a surprise and disappointment for supporting governments.
However, this development has now increased the possibility of a candidate from Africa being endorsed at next year’s Conference of Commonwealth Heads of Government scheduled for November in Malta.  And the most likely successor to the outgoing two-term Secretary General, Kamalesh Sharma of India, could well be Botswana’s Mmasekgoa Masire-Mwamba.
Until a few months ago, she was one of two current Deputy Secretaries-General, (Political Affairs), the other being Trinidad and Tobago’s incumbent Deodat Maharaj (Economic Affairs).
Given the history and general pattern of electing a Commonwealth Secretary General for two successive terms—(the indomitable ‘Caribbean iconic statesman’ Sir Shridath Ramphal being an exception with three terms)—as well as a tradition of geographical choices, the Commonwealth Caribbean and Africa are the current two regions eligible to offer nominations for election of the new Secretary General at next November’s Summit in Malta.
Since the British monarch is Head of the Commonwealth and Britain, the headquarters for the Commonwealth Secretariat, the Secretary General has traditionally been elected from a Commonwealth member state while the British government is known to maintain keen interest and quiet diplomacy in the selection process.

Two British Baronesses 
There, however, has emerged a curious development in the current scenario, ahead of next year’s Commonwealth summit in Malta. There are reports of British diplomats showing more than casual interest in favour of Baronness Scotland’s candidacy and doing so with less caution than previously displayed in relation to that of Baroness Amos.’ Consequently, prevailing suggestions of British ‘proxy’ candidates in the campaign for a new Secretary General.
Baroness Amos is of Guyanese origin while Baroness Scotland is of Dominican origin. They were both pretty young when they were taken to England where they became British citizens and rose to prominent political and other positions. Guyana had reportedly declined “on a matter of principle” to endorse the candidacy of Baroness Amos.
By the time of Dominica’s announcement of Baroness Scotland as its candidate for the post of Commonwealth Secretary General, and Antigua and Barbuda making public its choice of Sir Ronald, CARICOM Heads of Government had opted to go the route of finding  a “consensus candidate” considering that Trinidad  and Tobago’s Dr Tewarie, had also announced his campaign for the office.
The majority of governments within the OECS sub-region, as well as others like Jamaica and Guyana. They are known to have been strongly supportive of Sanders’ candidacy and were prepared to await next February’s inter-sessional meeting of CARIOM leaders to reach a consensus.
Now an African candidate seems the most likely choice in preference to a British ‘proxy’ choice from this region.  The voting constituencies ahead of  the Heads of Government Summit in Malta involve a dozen CARICOM states; 18 from Africa; 13 Pacific; eight Asian and three European states.

Botswana’s Masirie
Since, on the basis of rotation Africa seems to have the edge among Commonwealth member states, Africa member countries seem to have more leverage in the choice of a new Secretary General. And Botswana’s Masire-Mwamba has been garnering some significant support, according to media reports.
The daughter of a former President of Botswana, Masire is reported to have already secured endorsement for the Commonwealth Secretariat’s top post from the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) amid CARICOM’S elusive quest for a consensus candidate.

*Rickey Singh is a Barbados-based noted Caribbean journalist.