PPP/C in Marginal Lead – according to latest NACTA Poll

AN ongoing tracking opinion poll being conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) is showing a close election between the ruling PPP/C and the Opposition APNU-AFC with the incumbent party just marginally ahead. The PPP is facing its toughest election in its electoral history with a significant percentage of traditional PPP supporters splitting their vote to the Opposition while traditional PNC supporters are cheering for their party to vote out the PPP.The poll finds that voters are sharply divided by race in how they will vote, which party (alliance) they want to win, and in their views on which party they feel will (and want to) win the May 11 general elections. Almost every African and Mixed feel the Opposition PNC-led coalition will win while most Indians, Chinese and Whites feel the PPP will (and want to) win. Amerindians are divided with some saying PPP will win, some saying the Opposition coalition will win, and the others saying it is too close to call. Overall, the largest group of respondents in the latest poll feel the election is too close to call, describing it as 50-50.

New York-based pollster Dr Vishnu Bisram
New York-based pollster Dr Vishnu Bisram

Among those Indians who say the election is too close, they want the PPP to win. And among those Africans who say the election is too close to call, they want the coalition (many calling it the PNC) to win. Amerindians who say the election is too close to call want the PPP to win. And in fact, the findings reveal a majority of Amerindians are supporting the PPP and want it to win. They say the PPP has done a lot for them since 1992 while they suffered under the PNC prior to 1992.
The findings of the latest NACTA poll, conducted over the last week, are obtained from interviews with 480 voters (42 per cent Indians, 31 per cent Africans, 17 per cent Mixed, nine per cent Amerindians, and one per cent other races) of the population.
The poll was conducted in face-to-face interviews to reflect the demographics of the population and was coordinated by New York-based pollster Dr Vishnu Bisram who has been conducting opinion polls in Guyana for the last 25 years. The results of the poll were analysed at a 95 per cent significance level with a statistical sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.
The election has become close because a significant number of disgruntled Indians are breaking from their traditional voting pattern, angry with the PPP for neglecting them and for various other reasons, saying they will cast ballot for the Opposition coalition. It is not a pro-coalition vote but an angry anti-PPP vote because they want to teach the ruling party a lesson. If Indians were to return to the fold, the PPP will eke out a narrow victory.
Analogously, the poll finds very little cross-racial voting among Africans for PPP. While Indians are splitting their vote, Africans are lining up solidly behind the PNC (APNU). And those Indians who are supporting the coalition continue to make the distinction that they are voting for the AFC component of the coalition and not APNU.
Most Indians and Amerindians, as well as most of the sprinkling of Whites and Chinese, say they are voting for the PPP because the coalition is rife with PNC officials who were connected to the atrocities committed during the PNC dictatorship. They express a fear of resurrection of national service, ban of essential goods, seizure of farming produce, control of trade, currency restrictions, property devaluation, and reintroduction of government owned businesses that will squeeze out privately owned businesses, among other concerns. A large majority of voters say they do not want a repeat of the abuses that took place when the PNC was in office.
Asked which party or alliance they think will win the election, 35% say PPP/C, 34% the coalition, 24% “too close to call”, and 7% no response.
Voters were also queried on other issues and how they intend to vote. The findings will be released in a subsequent report.

Most Indians & Amerindians express a fear of the Opposition resurrecting national service, ban essential goods, seize farming produce, control trade, currency restrictions, property devaluation, and reintroduce government owned businesses that will squeeze out privately owned businesses, among other concerns.
The poll finds very little cross-racial voting among Africans for PPP. While Indians are splitting their vote, Africans are lining up solidly behind the PNC (APNU)

 

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