—guessing game over PM’s options

WHILE GUYANESE would be caught up today in nation-wide celebrations for Guyana’s 44th anniversary as a constitutional republic-amid continuing economic growth and expanded social services-Barbadians would be struggling to shake off a mood of spreading economic gloom and concerns for social stability.

This is a most unusual post-independence phase for Barbados, the CARICOM partner state which for many years had maintained the enviable reputation as perhaps the best managed economy in the Region and a stable currency with the Barbados dollar at 50 cents to the USD.

At present, however, there are passionate political speculations about cabinet changes and even the political survival, in its current formation of the Democratic Labour Party administration of Prime Minister Freundel Stuart, now in the second year of its second five-year term.
In the political hot seat as Head of Government at a period of the nation’s worst economic crisis since independence 48 years ago, Mr. Stuart finds his leadership style under recurring blistering criticisms both from traditional political opponents and now quite openly as well from leading figures of his party and administration.
Just over a week ago, there was the unique political development of a former Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs, Dr. David Estwick, being permitted—as

he had publicly requested—to make a ‘power-point’ presentation with alternative policies and strategies to the already approved 2014 national budget. The budget was followed by a shock announcement by the Finance Minister, Chris Sinckler, that 3,000 public sector workers would be retrenched in batches within the first quarter of the year.

The Estwick factor
Currently holding the portfolio of Minister of Agriculture—as he did in Stuart’s first term DLP administration, as well as previously serving as Minister of Health, Estwick has, over the years, acquired a reputation for being loquacious and unpredictable. Nevertheless, to his credit, he has never shied away from articulating alternative policies and initiatives, at times winning applause from sections of the society, across party lines.
Still, there is no known precedent in post-independence governance within CARICOM or anywhere else in the Commonwealth for a cabinet minister succeeding in wringing concession from a Head of Government to present a package of alternative policies and strategies for improved fiscal management to steer the country from a deep economic crisis—AFTER parliamentary approval of that budget.
Estwick, after all, had participated in the relevant cabinet meetings, including that of the Finance Committee in approving the 2014 budget prior to its being debated and approved by the nation’s parliament where the government has a slim two-seat majority.
Further, there is the age-old established tradition of “collective cabinet responsibility” rooted in our inherited constitutional democratic governance. And now that he has had his day with permitted permission to present to cabinet his “alternative” policies, there are speculations about his longevity in Prime Minister Stuart’s cabinet, as well as his continuation as a DLP parliamentarian.
Should he choose to sit as an ‘Independent’ or even the cross the floor to the opposition Barbados Labour Party (BLP) the government would have the very tough challenge in maneuvering, for as long as practical, with a one-seat majority, with four years more to go in its current second term.
For Prime Minister Stuart, the unpleasant surprises, the agony coming from within the governing DLP are evidently becoming more politically painful. This past Sunday, for instance, brought a very surprising development from an unexpected source—the former DLP leader and two-term Prime Minister, Sir Lloyd Esrkine Sandiford.
A respected educator and former Minister of Education as well the country’s ambassador to China until last year, Sandiford had faced back in 1991 as Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, a very challenging fiscal management problem. He felt compelled to enforce a very unpopular across-the-board eight percent pay cut for public sector workers.
He was to survive political rule and mass demonstrations organised by trade unions as well as the enormous pressures from the then opposition Barbados Labour Party (BLP).

Blunt talk
Having won that battle, and now in virtual political retirement, Sandiford felt constrained at the weekend to decry what he views as lack of leadership by Prime Minister Stuart at a time of spreading social and economic crisis.
He was blunt when addressing a meeting of the DLP’s St Lucy constituency branch, declaring that a Prime Minister should be seen as “being in charge” including assumption of the portfolio of Minister of Finance and giving direct guidance to pull the country out of its deep economic crisis, based on accepted prescriptions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—an institution for which Jamaica has reluctantly acquired ‘plenty respect—with plenty reservations!
Even some DLP supporters in Barbados who are not anxious to surrender their party’s control of state power before scheduled general election—still four years away—have expressed  surprise over the vehemence with which Sandiford made his angry public intervention with a personal ridicule of Prime Minister Stuart’s leadership.
There may well be much more in the mortar than the proverbial pestle amid multiplying indicators of fading traditional governance in Barbados. The prevailing political status quo cannot be sustained for long. Stay tuned.

(Analysis by RICKEY SINGH)