–Ramkarran shares views on Compendium Two of National Census

By Ariana Gordon

WITH the release of the long awaited ethnic census in Compendium Two last week, it has been discerned that neither the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) nor A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) has clear cut supporters along ethnic lines.Former Speaker of the National Assembly, Ralph Ramkarran, in his weekly column ‘The Conversation Tree’, said that while the PPP appears to be confident of an awaiting victory come 2020, when the National Elections are due, the situation may not be that straightforward.

According to the census, conducted in 2012, the Indian population has declined from 326,277 or 43.4 per cent in 2002, to 297,493 or 39.8 per cent in 2012. The African population has declined from 227,062 or 30.2 per cent in 2002, to 218,483 or 29.2 per cent in 2012. The Amerindian population has increased from 66,675 or 9.1 per cent in 2002, to 78,492 or 10.5 per cent in 2012. The Mixed population has increased from 125,727 or 16.7 per cent in 2002, to 148,532 or 19.9 per cent in 2012.

Ramkarran, in his article titled ‘Politics and the Ethnic Census’, said the PPP believes it can regain power by a majority at the next elections because of “diminishing support for the AFC.”
“However, its own support among the Indian business and professional classes and the larger Indian middle class is weakening, and its leadership is either jaded or short of talent and the capacity to inspire. It also carries much baggage from its 23-year rule.”

He also noted that the APNU has the advantage of “an increasing mixed population and the perquisites of Government to entice Amerindian support away from the PPP.”

What he described as a “cleaner record” by the APNU during its governance will play an important role in demonstrating that the party is in a better position to manage the country than the PPP, which held office for 23 years.

HUGE DECLINE
Statistics have shown that the PPP gains support from primarily the Indian and Amerindian communities; but, between 1980 and 2012, there has been a decline by 96,924, which represents a decline of 24 per cent.

“The increase in size of the Amerindian population did not make up for the decline in the Indian population. Amerindians increased by 38,149 between 1980 and 2012; that is, from 40,343 in 1980 to 78,492 in 2012.

The difference between the reduction of Indians and the increase of Amerindians shows a net loss of 58,775, or 15 per cent among the PPP’s voting support,” said Ramkarran, a former PPP stalwart, in his article.

APNU receives most of its support from the African and Mixed communities, and it has been shown that, between 2002 and 2012, the African population has declined, although by only one per cent. The Mixed population has, however, increased by 3.2 per cent.

It therefore means that APNU has benefited from a net increase of 2.2 per cent in the population of which it relies for most of its support. The African population has lost 8,579 persons, while the Mixed population increased by 22,805, a net increase of 14,226 or seven per cent.

Meanwhile, Ramkarran has said an analysis of the 2012 Census suggests that the decline in the Indian population could have been one of the factors responsible for the decreased support received by the PPP at the 2011 General Elections.

Another possible reason could be that the number of persons residing within Region Six, the party’s stronghold, had declined by 15,000. This indicated that some of the support moved to the Alliance For Change (AFC).

Though winning the elections in 2011, the PPP did not hold the majority in the National Assembly. The PPP secured 32 seats while APNU secured 26 and the AFC seven. With the latter parties coming together, the PPP became a figurative winner.

“Neither the numerical nor the percentage support obtained by the parties between 1992 and 2011 show any basis on which it can be concluded that the ethnic population figures have had an impact on the results.

“The PPP’s support went up from 166,340 in 2011 to 202,694 in 2015, reflecting an intensification of political work after its disastrous performance in 2011. APNU may also have increased from 139,678 in 2011 due to a similar intensification, but there is no way to tell what was the portion of the total vote of 207,200 that APNU attracted, since some of those votes were brought in by the AFC,” the Senior Counsel noted.

NOT REALISTIC
He said, too, that with what is believed to be a rapid decline of the Indian population over the years, there can be no doubt that the PPP’s expectation to sustain electoral and political dominance, even for a short term, can’t be realistic.

“The speed of the decline of the Indian population suggests that the PPP cannot expect to sustain electoral and political dominance, even if it does so in the short-term,” Ramkarran contended.

“For APNU, the declining support of the AFC places the coalition in danger of losing a straight electoral battle with the PPP. But our political history suggests that with an ingrained culture of ethno/political competition, APNU+AFC and the PPP will take their chances in the next elections,” Ramkarran opined.

HINDRANCE
He noted that while political differences and disputes are no worse in Guyana than elsewhere, the fact that one half of the population feels alienated when it perceives that the other half is in power hinders investment and economic progress.

“But the drive for ethno/political supremacy is so compelling that new constitutional approaches which might alter the system of election of the President and the structure of the State, to encourage compromise and inclusivity in our political process, is hardly on the front burner.

“The intent and bona fides of the two main political parties will be tested in the upcoming constitutional reform process,” Ramkarran has posited.

It should be noted that the Indian population declined by three per cent between 1980 and 1991; by five per cent between 1991 and 2002, and by four per cent between 2002 and 2012. The African population increased by two per cent between 1980 and 1991; declined by two per cent between 1991 and 2002; and declined by one per cent between 2001 and 2012.

The National Population and Housing Census was conducted in 2012. Published in 2014, it showed a decrease in the population from 751,223 in 2002, to 746,955 in 2012.