Fire equipment expected from Toronto
By Frederick Halley in Toronto
THE Guyana Fire Service (GFS) is set to benefit from a substantial donation of fire equipment, made possible through the Toronto Fire Service (TFS) and coordinated by project engineer attached to the city of Toronto, Guyanese-born Ulric Anthony.

GUYANESE POSSE: A Guyana contingent pose with some of the equipment. Ulric Anthony is third from right.

Anthony, who previously donated some G$31M to the GFS during a visit to Guyana last year, will also be on hand to present the equipment when they arrive in early September.

At a simple but significant ceremony held at the prestigious Toronto City Hall recently, TFS Fire Chief, Mr. William Stewart officially handed over the equipment to Anthony, while extending an arm of friendship to the GFS and the people of Guyana.

Expressing delight at being able to donate the equipment, which, although used are in excellent condition, Stewart said it was a pleasure to assist the Guyana Fire Service and pledged further help in the future. He pointed out that the equipment are serviceable and clean, and will provide valuable protection to the Guyanese firemen.

The TFS head also hinted at possibly paying a visit to Guyana during next year after being invited to do so by Mr. Terry Jarvis, a member of the Guyana Ex-Police Association of Canada, who chaired the City Hall proceedings.

TFS chief, Mr. William Stewart displays some of the equipment.

The donation was in fulfillment of a promise made during Anthony’s visit to Guyana last year. The Project Engineer had said then that training for the GFS was also on the cards and that this will be done in conjunction with the advice of the Fire Chief in Toronto.

Anthony, who had also met Home Affairs Minister, Mr. Clement Rohee while in Guyana pointed out then that efforts were being made to have Guyana’s Fire Chief visit Toronto to interact with his Canadian counterpart and to finalise plans for an ongoing training programme.

Prior to leaving Guyana, Anthony was attached to the Transport & Harbours Department (T&HD) as a marine engineer. His first stop, however, was in Holland where he continued studies in the same field before migrating to Canada in 1977.

After graduating from the George Brown Technical Institute in 1979 with a Second Class Power Plant Engineering certificate, Anthony secured a job with the Toronto City Council, rising to the position of Project Engineer.

Freak accident claims motorist’s life
Lone passenger treated and sent away
By Shirley Thomas
A 35-year-old West Demerara motorist on his way to the city was killed on the spot early yesterday morning when his car reportedly ran out of its lane and crashed into others on display outside Kenrick’s Auto Sales Company at Eccles, East Bank Demerara.

The deceased, Dirk Pollard

The accident reportedly occurred around 04:30h. Information reaching his wife, Camille, said that Pollard was apparently tired and may have dozed off, which is how he came to temporarily lose control of the vehicle and ended up in the other lane.

According to reports, such was the impact that Pollard’s head was split wide open, causing brain matter to spill unto the roadway as well as the pavement. This was substantiated by his wife. She recalled arriving on the scene at around 05:00h.

The place was still dark, she said, but she immediately jumped out of the taxi she’d hired and ran across the road to the car her husband had been driving. She recalled that on approaching the vehicle, she slipped on something and fell. On looking closer, she discovered it was her husband’s brain matter on the road.

She, however, managed to get up and thrust herself towards the car, but on seeing him slumped across the steering wheel with the gaping hole in his head and bleeding, she fainted.

Recounting the harrowing experience from her home yesterday, Camille said her husband had gone to bed late Friday night, since they operate a business spot on the premises. But because he had to get to the city early yesterday, he got out of bed earlier than usual and left home around 04:00h.

She said it was shortly after he’d left that the friend with whom he was travelling called her with the shocking news.

“In fact, he told me that the car had crashed and he did not think that Dirk would make it,” she said, struggling to complete the statement. Her immediate reaction, she said, was to drop the phone and break the news to the rest of the family. She also called a taxi. She was the first family member on the scene, she said, adding that when she arrived, a huge crowd, comprising mainly Eccles residents and passers-by, had already gathered.

Pollard, who celebrated his birthday just last Tuesday, is survived by his two daughters, Affima, 10, and Bianca, 6; three sisters, three brothers and other relatives and friends.
His mother, Cyserena Hunte, took the news badly and immediately fell ill.

On the road to recovery after near brush with death
By Shirley Thomas
TWO occurrences that were both overlooked or merely dismissed as incidents of no great import may have been a warning to 26-year-old Rawle Wood of the impending danger that lay ahead a mere 24 hours away in the form of a vehicular accident that would claim the lives of three.

Rawle Wood at his parents home at Mahaica two weeks ago. (Photo by Shirley Thomas)

Later that evening, at around 22:00h, Rawle was travelling in yet another vehicle when the bonnet suddenly flew open and hit and broke its windscreen. Again, no one was seriously hurt, and the occurrence was dismissed as a minor incident.

It was not until the following evening, Monday, April 28 at around 17:30h, when cows again featured, this time causing a most horrific smash-up involving the bus in which Rawle was travelling and a truck, that his parents would realise that misfortune had indeed been constantly dogging his footsteps. That accident occurred at Bee Hive, on the East Coast Demerara, just about four miles west of where Rawle was staying with his parents.

According to reports, the driver of the truck claimed he swerved to avoid hitting some cows which were on the road. In an instant, the frightfully loud impact, accompanied by an equally loud clang of steel and breaking windscreen broke the silence of the countryside, and three persons lay dead.

Killed on the spot were Desmond Datterdeen, 40, the owner and driver of the ill-fated minibus; Mohamed Akbar, 54, an employee of a private hospital here in the city; and 26-year-old Marisa Assaye, a Grade III teacher and mother of one.

Among the ten other casualties were Rawle Wood, whose life was at one time said to be hanging by a thread, and his sister Jacqueline, who suffered a dislocated neck-bone among other injuries.

After spending two days in the Georgetown hospital’s Intensive Care Unit, Rawe’s wife, Karina, who works with an Insurance company in St Thomas, immediately arranged to have him evacuated to the St Clair Medical Centre in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad. He left here on May 1, accompanied by his father, Vasil.

On arrival at St Clair’s, a team of six doctors, including two brain surgeons, immediately set to work on him. But the prognosis was not so good; the results of the CT scans were so frightening, that his wife and parents all worried whether he would live at all, and if he did, what were his chances of leading a normal life again.

The scans showed that not only were his right temple and the region towards the back of his head fractured, resulting in hemorrhaging in three parts of the brain, but that his right cheek bone was also broken and in danger of infecting his right eye.

In addition to this, they’d also found bruising and swelling of the brain, along with a build-up of fluid in the region of the lung, which resulted in his developing pneumonia in the left one causing it to shut down. With the left lung out of commission, the right one was so taxed that at one point the doctors feared that it would collapse too. Fortunately, it didn’t.

For about three weeks, Rawle was on life support systems. Throughout the period, close relatives and friends fasted and prayed, while the doctors worked diligently. His wife and mother would eventually join his father at his bedside, and together they hoped for the best as the doctors daily presented their reports.

It was indeed a tall order, but after six weeks of dedicated work by the doctors, and about TT$.5M, Rawle was eventually snatched from the jaws of death. Within 17 days, he began showing signs of recuperation and was transferred from the ICU to a private room. Not only was he breathing on his own once more and focusing and seeing out of his right eye, but above all, the build-up of fluid in the lungs had drained, he was speaking, and was no longer being fed intravenously. In short, his condition was said to have been stabilized, among other things.

He was discharged from St Clair’s on the morning of June 9, and flown back home to Guyana that same night.

Today, even though Rawle’s spouse and parents have been cautioned by his doctors that it will take several months for his brain to function fully once more, they say they are satisfied with the progress of his recovery.

He still complains of pains in the head at times, and of being sore on occasions in the region of the neck, abdomen and side, where tubes were inserted. His parents are, however, thankful to God, his doctors, relatives and kind friends who contributed, in whatever way, to his miraculous recovery.

St Paul’s Retreat Centre opens
By Shirley Thomas
THE Roman Catholic Diocese of Guyana on Wednesday officially declared open the St Paul’s Retreat Centre, a spanking new multi-million dollar facility with all modern conveniences at Vryheid’s Lust, on the East Coast Demerara.

The palatial dining area. (Photo by Adrian Narine)

Besides being used by churches within the Catholic body primarily for weekend retreats, conferences and other such activities, the facility will also be open to other denominations as well as the corporate community who might need to use it to either house overseas delegations, or to hold conferences, workshops, retreats and seminars among other worthwhile activities.

Located just outside the city and next door to the former St Paul’s Seminary, the massive edifice boasts a well manicured lawn, among other amenities such as a huge conference centre that can comfortably seat up to 150 persons; sleeping accommodation replete with hot and cold water, for up to 50 persons, with room for another 18 or so persons over at the old St Paul’s building just next door; a well-appointed and attractively laid out dining area with capacity to seat 150; and an equally well-appointed kitchen.

Bishop Alleyne consecrates the building at the opening ceremony. (Photo by Adrian Narine)

Other amenities include a chapel and prayer rooms, standby generator to ensure the premises has a continuous supply of power, and a laundering service.

Among the several committees specially set up to oversee key areas of the overall management of the facility is the one headed by Mr. Kent Vincent.

Commenting on cost, Vincent who said that prices are negotiable, noted that incredibly, even though the service has just come on stream, it is already booked up until September. Other members of the Management Committee are: Mr. Phillip Fernandes, Mr. Ramsay Ali, Mr. C Johnson, Miss Rhonda Nelson and Mr. Mark Kendall.

Architects for the building are: Rodrigues Architects; Contractor – Raffik & Sons. Bishop Allen in his remarks also made special mention of Mr. Amit Kumar Ramroop – the building foreman who had displayed a passionate interest in the job, and seeing the building come to fruition, but who unfortunately died a few weeks ago before its inauguration.

Agriculture Minister meets with Dora and Kairuni farmers
- as Grow More caravan continues its outreach
THE ‘Grow More’ caravan continued its outreach yesterday with Minister of Agriculture Mr. Robert Persaud and a team from his Ministry paying a visit to the communities of Dora and Kairuni in Region Three to conduct meetings on the ‘Grow More’ food campaign.

Minister Persaud urged farmers to become organized, as the campaign will require them to make changes to withstand the challenges ahead.

He noted that working together can bring opportunities and benefits.

Advising residents of the global and local demand for soya products, Minister Persaud said Guyana is undertaking initiatives to develop a soya enterprise and within a few days tests will be conducted at Kairuni to identify suitable areas for cultivation.

Minister Persaud further stated that his Ministry will continue to work with farmers to eliminate some of problems they experience with marketing their produce and urged that they register with the New Guyana Marketing Corporation (NGMC) so that the Ministry can respond to their needs.

During the meetings, farmers revealed that some of their crops have been affected by plant disease and pests and asked for assistance in this regard.

Farmers were informed that chemicals will be distributed and Government is further undertaking other initiatives to assist farmers to acquire agro-chemicals and fertilizers at cheaper cost.

Alluding to the skyrocketing oil prices, Minister Persaud said Guyana is pursuing projects to develop bio-fuel and ethanol to reduce the dependency of oil importation on which Guyana spends approximately one-third of the country’s earnings. The creation of a 1000 mega watt hydro-power project will reduce cost on energy consumption, he said

The need for sustainable forest management was also stressed by the Minister.

He explained that the Ministry will continue to work with farmers to ensure a vibrant forestry sector. There is need for management to extract resources and at the same time preserve it to capture carbon to mitigate the effects of climate change, he said.

At the meetings farmers were enlightened about the effects of climate change on the agriculture sector and how they can become involved and adapt to the global phenomenon.

Farmers were given planting materials and pamphlets on the ‘Grow More’ campaign. (GINA)

Farmers must adapt to changes -Agri Minister
AGRICULTURE Minister Mr. Robert Persaud has challenged Region Three farmers to adapt to the changes required to take full advantage of the opportunities created by the global food situation.

He re-emphasized this during a visit to Morashee, Blake and the Parika Backdam, all on the East Bank Essequibo where he encouraged farmers to get on board the ‘Grow more’ campaign yesterday.

He advised them of the Ministry’s work to explore different avenues to assist farmers in dealing with the challenges posed by the steady increase in fuel prices which creates increases in fertilizers and chemicals.

The Ministry, he said, has invested significant sums to modernize the sector. This include building of state-of-the-art packaging facilities, printing and distribution of farmers’ manual, clearing of major drainage and irrigation canals, training of more technical personnel and the close monitoring of farms which are all designed to equip them with essential knowledge to become successful farmers and entrepreneurs.

Farmers were assured that the Ministry will continue to do its part, but they too have a significant role to play and to be proactive in their operations.

The market-driven ‘Grow More’ campaign launched in March is one of the measures taken by Government to cushion the impact of high food prices.

Since its launching, the Minister and officials from his Ministry have been visiting communities to educate farmers on methods to improve farm management and post harvest handling of produce.

Minister Persaud noted that the campaign has, in addition to getting farmers to produce more, served to educate farmers on best practices.

Outlining the interventions government has made to cushion the impact of the increased prices, Minister Persaud, advised that Government was also trying to purchase fertilizer directly from producers.

He urged farmers to form groups which will yield more benefits for them. “We want our farmers to be price givers and not price takers.” This, he asserted, can only be possible if farmers adapt to changes required.

The farmers were encouraged to register with the new Guyana Marketing Corporation so that they could be linked with potential buyers.

The representatives from the Minister also distributed seeds, and other agricultural materials to farmers present at the meeting. (GINA)

Queens Atlantic textile division to open September
GLOBAL Textile (Guyana) Inc, a subsidiary of Queens Atlantic Investment Inc (QAII), is looking at September for the commissioning of its new textile production unit, while the parent company proposes having at least three other facilities up and running before yearend.

Those facilities at reference are a pharmaceutical export processing facility, a hardware manufacturing division, and an antibiotics plant and R&D facility, for which construction has already begun.

Textile equipment leased at the Sanata Complex

The new machinery for this division is being sourced from Italy and China, the company said, adding that given the steady demand for good quality denim material and various bandages, ‘Global Textile’ intends to export a significant volume of its output to countries within the region, including North America.
Confident that the machinery it has acquired to produce fabric of the highest standards ahs the capacity to do the job, Queens Atlantic said: “The flexibility of equipment will also enable the company to manufacture other products for technical and household uses,” and that furthermore, there are downstream value-added opportunities to be had, which, when combined effectively with the core business of fabric production, will guarantee sustainability and benefits to the country while creating more than 400 jobs.

Turning its attention to the slew of unwarranted media attention it has been having of late which primarily has to do with it’s lease of the Sanata Textiles Complex, an entity that had been in such a state of disrepair that the textile equipment contained therein were beyond salvaging or resuscitation, Queens Atlantic said that in spite of all the negativity, it still subscribes “to the belief that the engine of growth must emanate from the private sector, preferably by Guyanese, and the main focus should be in areas that promote real development using modern technology.”

On the issue of prolonged lease rental and the possibility of the devaluation of the Guyana dollar in relation to the US dollar having a negative financial effect on the lessor, Queens Atlantic said:

“In a highly competitive environment, it is not prudent for the company to give details of its proposed activities and strategies, but it is pertinent to state that the lease rental is denominated in US dollars, and will be increased periodically, based on the movement of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the USA.”

New textile equipment being sourced by Global Textile (Guyana) Ltd

As the company was at pains to point out in its release, “while QAII’s rent is denominated in US dollars and is subject to an escalation clause, based on the US CPI, there are companies in Guyana paying rent as low as G$1 per square foot.”

By comparison, it goes on to say, “these companies are paying a mere decimal of QAII’s rent, and they will pay even less if the Guyana Dollar depreciates.”

It was also pointed out that “QAII is responsible for the payment of rates and taxes, [and that while] the proposed investment of the company is of the order of US$30M over a three-year period, the annual lease payment of approximately G$50M for a property dormant for several years, and on which millions were spent on fixed and other costs, is more than what most companies pay as tax to the government.”

Clean-up cost alone, which includes the removal of asbestos and other waste materials, the company said, is expected to surpass G$1.5 billion.

The company said in closing that “the export processing facility will consolidate the export of the NGPC (New Guyana Pharmaceutical Corporation)’s products to the Caribbean region and North America, [while] the Group’s hardware division will produce dimensional stones and tubing to replace copper pipes used in various industries whilst the antibiotics plant with see the production of third generation antibiotics.”
The antibiotics plant, it says, will generate 280 new jobs.

Perspectives
And what about the EPAs?
By Prem Misir
THE advent of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, through trade liberalisation, has transformed economies all over the world; and the Caribbean economies are no exception.

They are no exception, especially when you consider, according to ECLAC, that Caribbean production systems are a product of protection and regulation; and that Caribbean export systems are a product of protection, mainly through the European Union’s non-reciprocal preferential arrangements, fast becoming a thing of the past.

And so, the multilateral trade liberalisation (Uruguay Round Agreement, 1994) has reduced the level of protection that Caribbean economies once enjoyed. And the reduced protection was further deepened through trade liberalisation which carried, as part of its repertoire, privatisation of State enterprises, market deregulation, and monetary and fiscal policy reforms for price stabilisation purposes.

This week, the 29th Caribbean Heads of Government meeting gets underway as Caribbean nations celebrate the 35th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Chaguaramas, which birthed the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the Common Market on July 4, 1973. These Heads must know that their economies are not highly protected anymore; and, indeed, a force field analysis may show that these economies may have lost out with sugar, vis-à-vis the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union (EU).

But how did this EPA come about? The furor on sugar started when the European Commission announced on June 22, 2005 its intention to reform the Common Market Organisation (CMO) for Sugar; the EU definitively decided to initially reduce by 36% the price of sugar that African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries will receive.

Effectively, this decision brought to an end the era of preferential access to sugar from 20 ACP countries. The preferential access started life in 1975, whereby the access really was for agreed quantities of sugar at guaranteed prices, negotiated annually. The preferential quota had an equivalence of some 1.3 million tonnes per year.

With the end of preferential access, the EU also made available resources for adjustment and compensation from 2006 through 2013; and so, the EU initially made an offer of 6 billion Euros to its own producers; but agreed only on 6 million Euros for all ACP countries for 2006.

The Lomé Convention governed the ACP-EU Sugar Protocol from 1975 through 2000. And the February 2000 expiration of the Lomé Convention created the opportunity for reviewing the future of EU-ACP relations. And so, arising from this review was a new EU-ACP agreement signed on June 23, 2000 in Cotonou, Benin, lasting for 20 years from March 2000 through February 2020; the Cotonou Agreement.

The Cotonou Agreement carries a revision clause which allows for a five-yearly review; such a review commenced in May 2004 and ended on February 23, 2005. And so, it is not surprising that the EU’s announcement of a change in the CMO for sugar came in June 2005, clearly opening the way for a new trade agreement; and so, efforts to put in place Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), as the new agreement, began in earnest.

EPA negotiations were set in motion with West Africa and Central Africa in October 2003, with Eastern and Southern Africa in February 2004, and with the Caribbean in April 2004. The EPAs are intended to replace the ‘trade’ chapters of the Cotonou Agreement.

But what about the EPAs? CARIFORUM will get market access for goods and services, and pledges of development support. The EU will get access to CARIFORUM markets for goods and services, and compulsory obligations on CARIFORUM policies in additional areas.

According to Mareike Meyn of the Overseas Development Institute, growth hypotheses provide legitimacy to the EPAs. The geographical hypothesis of growth may ‘be the cornerstone’ of EPAs. The thinking runs as follows: The ACP economies’ underdevelopment limits investment and growth; and it’s only with regional integration that we can reduce business costs, enhance market attractiveness, with greater economies of scale.

But there have been mounting criticisms of the EPAs. What are they? Norman Girvan, Havelock Brewster, and Vaughn Lewis, in a Memorandum titled ‘Problem Areas in the EPA and the case for Content Review’ to the Reflections Group, believe that renegotiation is a must as, once the EPA is in force, it would be hard to amend. They cited 19 areas that make the case for renegotiation, but we present seven, as follows:

(1) The main objective of the EPAs is to reduce poverty and bring about sustainable development; but the development component in the EPA is subordinate to trade liberalisation; (2) resource transfers not legally compulsory within the EPA; such transfers help to reduce inequality between the two partners, for they enhance the productive capability of the groups; the end result would be greater inequality, and the advanced partner, the EU, would have greater access to these opportunities thrown up by trade liberalisation; (3) possible tariff elimination on 82.7% of imports from the EU; (4) market access does not add up to market presence, as many value-added goods from CARIFORUM will be excluded; (5) CARIFORUM enterprises would need help to enhance their supply capabilities and competitiveness, in order to comply with imports from the EU; nothing is in the EPA about such aid; (6) development cooperation within the EPA is not calculated and time-bound; (7) availability of 29 service sectors and 11 professional services in the EU has too many conditionalities.

And then, the Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery (CRNM) issued a 32-point response to the Girvan-Brewster-Lewis Memorandum. The CRNM noted that: “The authors’ comment lies on the false premise that the status quo with respect to CARIFORUM’s current trading arrangements with Europe will remain intact in the absence of a signed agreement…

“In conclusion therefore, the Memorandum clearly does not represent the text of the EPA and the issues contained within it; is replete with errors and innuendos; dismisses the hard work of regional officials and stakeholders through the intense coordination process and well targeted analysis of relevant issues; and makes little or no contribution to the intended consideration of the regional negotiating process and recommendations for its improvement.”

Member States currently are reviewing the EPA text prior to inking it. But moving from non-reciprocal preferential trading arrangements to reciprocal trading that is WTO-compatible requires caution to ensure that the EPA partners work toward achieving equality in the receipt of benefits and comparative advantage, and that a development dimension surely becomes a pivotal foundational component of the EPA.

Black's Faux Pas
By Gwynne Dyer
A ‘FAUX PAS’ is not a lie or an error. It is a truthful statement which, for political or social reasons, the speaker should not have made. But since he did make it, let us discuss it.

In an interview published in the July issue of Fortune magazine, Charlie Black, chief strategist to John McCain, observed that the Republican presidential candidate would benefit from a surge of support if there were a terrorist attack on the United States before the election. You could hardly make a more obvious statement. Hermits who have lived in caves since the Great Depression know that much about American politics. But you are not supposed to say it out loud.

It's easy to see how Black was led into this faux pas. In the interview, he had mentioned the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto last December as an example of an emergency in which McCain's experience would trump Barack Obama's lack of same.

"(McCain's) knowledge and ability to talk about it re-emphasised that this is the guy who's ready to be commander-in-chief," said Black, "and it helped us (in the polls)." So the interviewer asked the obvious next question: Would the public also see McCain as the better man to deal with another terrorist attack on the United States?

What was Black supposed to say? "No, I'm sure that Senator Obama would deal with it every bit as well as my candidate"? This was a live interview, and he had inadvertently created an opening for the interviewer to ask the taboo question. So he put his foot in it: "Certainly, it would be a big advantage to McCain." Cue fake shock and synthetic horror as everybody on the Democratic side pretends that Black is playing the ‘politics of fear’.

This is ‘Gotcha!’ politics of the lowest order. It is why debate on certain key subjects in the United States since 9/11 has been reduced to bland and mindless slogans on both sides of the political divide. Obama cannot say that the ‘terrorist threat’ to the United States has been inflated past bursting point for the past seven years, and that it is high time to shrink it to its real, rather modest dimensions and get on with the country's other long-neglected agendas. He would be crucified by the Republicans as "soft on terrorism," and the US media would uncritically echo the charge.

Instead, various Obama spokespersons condemned Black's candid remark and, by extension, McCain's tactics. "It is critical that the candidates debate national security...in an atmosphere free from fear tactics and political bluster," intoned Richard Ben-Veniste, a former member of the bipartisan September 11 commission whom the Obama campaign trotted out for the media. What Black had said involved neither fear tactics nor political bluster, but at this level, hypocrisy rules.

Black himself, of course, had to make a grovelling apology, and McCain had to distance himself from Black as far as possible: "I cannot imagine why (Black) would say it. It isn't true. I've worked tirelessly since 9/11 to prevent another attack on the United States." But it IS true: A terrorist attack would obviously drive millions of American voters back into the arms of ‘Mr. Security’, because a great many people assume that ex-fighter pilots are just better than first-term senators at dealing with that sort of thing.

Nobody said that John McCain was hoping for a terrorist attack on the United States, but that is the implicit accusation he is denying when he talks about "working tirelessly" to prevent an attack. And that superficial and pathetic exchange of views is probably the closest that the United States is going to come to a genuine debate on security issues during this entire election campaign.

So let us move on to something more interesting. What would ‘the terrorists’ really like to do in the United States between now and November, assuming that they had the ability to do something? Attack now, or wait until later?

We are not talking about confused juveniles with dreams of 72 virgins here. We are talking about senior leaders who think in strategic terms and plan years ahead. So if they want a McCain presidency, they give him the attack that Charlie Black quite accurately said would boost the Republican vote. If they want an Obama presidency, they do nothing.

I cannot read their minds, but I do know what would swing their decision one way or the other. If they want to collect their winnings now, they will favour an Obama presidency and an early US military withdrawal from the Middle East, after which they could reasonably hope to overthrow one or two regimes in the region and come to power themselves.

If they would rather keep the US mired in the region for longer, inflicting casualties on American troops and building up their own prestige with radical youth in the area, in the expectation of greater political gains later on, then they would back McCain. So they would try to help his election by blowing something up in the United States.

But the bottom line is that they probably lack the ability to blow anything up in the United States, which makes it a rather moot point.

Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.

CARICOM'S CONFLICTING SIGNALS
Focus on Antigua Summit
By Rickey Singh
LATEST INDICATION of significant differences among member governments of the Caribbean Community has come from Guyana on the eve of this week's 29th CARICOM Summit that gets underway on Tuesday (July 1) in St John's, Antigua.

It was the disclosure last Wednesday in Georgetown by President Bharrat Jagdeo that, based on further information and legal advice obtained, the Guyana Government may not join Community partners in signing next month the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) that was initialled last December in Barbados between representatives of the European Commission (EU) and CARIFORUM (CARICOM plus Dominican Republic).

Prior to this development, and amid conflicting signals on moving the process forward to access the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) as the final appellate institution for Community partners, there was the recent verbal blast by Vincentian Prime Minister, Ralph Gonsalves over "political decision-making" in CARICOM and his scathing dismissal of the Community Secretariat's functioning as "a ramshackle political-administrative apparatus..."

It is likely that Secretary-General Edwin Carrington may allude in his remarks at the opening session, to Gonsalves' criticisms that were made on June 16 when he addressed the launch of public consultations on the Draft OECS Economic Union Treaty.

The Vincentian leader -- who will be briefing his Community colleagues on an alleged plot involving drug dealers to assassinate him -- had said in addressing the launch of the first in the consultation series:

"I am satisfied that the politics of a limited regional engagement in Jamaica shackled by the ghosts from the federal referendum; the politics of ethnicity in Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana; a mistaken sense of 'uniqueness, specialness and separation' among large sections of the Barbadian populace; the peculiar distinctiveness of Haiti and Suriname, and the cultivated aloofness from the regional enterprise by The Bahamas, are destined in the foreseeable future to keep CARICOM as a 'Community of sovereign states' in which several of its member states jealously guard a vaunted and pristine sovereignty..."

Conflicting policies and negative attitudes towards advancing the process of free movement of CARICOM nationals; differences over foreign policy issues, as well as in approaches for attracting foreign investment and economic aid have also been causing concerns in more recent times among member governments and other stakeholders.

Those CARICOM leaders who last week participated in the New York Conference on the Caribbean are reported to have been exposed to a common thread in the thinking of US lawmakers and financial investors in favour of dealing with CARICOM as a common entity, and not with fragmentation on the edges in terms of less or more developed member states.

Signing of EPA
So far as embracing the new trade and economic package with the 25-member European Union is concerned, even prior to the conclusion negotiations for a full EPA, Guyana's President had expressed strong reservations in contrast to a very favourable response from Jamaica's Prime Minister Bruce Golding, who shoulders lead responsibility for the Community's Prime Ministerial Subcommittee on External Economic Negotiations.

Among suggestions surfacing for discussion on signing the arrangement for the EPA is that it be put on hold, and for initiatives to be pursued instead for a special summit of the 78-member African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) bloc to, hopefully, arrive at some common positions on core aspects of the regional accords before any meeting with EU representatives for a signing ceremony which Barbados has already agreed to host.

Both Jagdeo and Golding are scheduled to be among the five Heads of Government to

address Tuesday evening's ceremonial opening of the four-day summit. This has aroused new interest about the tone and content of their planned messages to the people of the 15-member Community.

For Golding, who became Prime Minister following last September's general election at which his Jamaica Labour Party secured a 32-28 parliamentary victory, it will be his debut address to a CARICOM Heads of Government Conference.

There is also expected to be a lively debate on the agenda issue pertaining to the "future of the Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery (CRNM)" resulting from recent efforts being made to have it incorporated into the CARICOM Secretariat, which would require a change in its current system of functioning and reporting to the Prime Ministerial Subcommittee on External Negotiations.

So far, with the exception of a representative of the Grenada Government, who previously worked with the CRNM, there appears to be little enthusiasm for the proposed incorporation, based on concerns about the delivery capacity of the Secretariat with its current heavy workload.

Regional Development Fund
He would be expected to also signal his administration's position in relation to CARICOM's Regional Development Fund (RDF) which is scheduled to be officially launched during this week's summit.

Status of allocated contributions by member states to enable the operationalising of the RDF is viewed as essential to its formal launching. A number of member states had not settled their required contributions as of last Friday (June 27).

With the exception of St Lucia, which has almost completed its fixed initial allocation, the OECS (Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States) countries are either far below, or --like Grenada and summit host, Antigua and Barbuda -- still to come forward with their contributions. In contrast, Trinidad and Tobago has fully paid up its initial contribution of US$37 million, and Barbados has deposited US$5 (five) million of its allotted share of US$11 million.

Creation of the estimated US$250 million Fund -- for which Trinidad and Tobago will be the single largest contributor among CARICOM states with an overall pledge of approximately US$120 million -- was strongly advocated by the OECS as a mechanism to provide special and differential treatment for enhancing socio-economic development for the less developed countries.

The rest of CARICOM responded by turning to the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) for expert guidance in the creation of the RDF, with the understanding that the countries of the OECS in particular will be on board by mid-2007 for the Community's single market as other partner states had done in January last year and with all working together for the realisation of a single economy by 2015.

Should member states fail to honour pledged commitments they could jeopardise the prospects of the Fund attracting resources from foreign donor nations and international financial institutions. A major provision for accessing the Fund is the denial of resources to defaulting contributors.

After a series of postponements, launching of the RDF would be a positive development in the face of lingering uncertainties about the way forward for CARICOM -- the regional economic integration movement that was inaugurated five years after the birth of the Caribbean Free Trade Association (CARIFTA) in 1968 (not 1965 as incorrectly appeared in an earlier article).