– ILO predicts LAC will lose close to 14 million jobs to the pandemic

By Tamica Garnett

MINISTER of Labour Keith Scott has said that the Department of Labour is thinking of assessing the effects the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is having on the local employment market, and has been engaging employers on the matter.

In a statement released last Tuesday, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) is quoted as saying that more than four out of five people, or 81 per cent of the global workforce, are currently affected by full or partial workplace closures, and that global unemployment during 2020 will depend substantially on future developments and policy measures.
In light of the ILO’s forecast, Scott acknowledged that an assessment will have to be done here in Guyana to properly analyse the situation.

“We will have to do that, but right now we are more concerned with asking people to stay at home,” Scott said, but we recognise that, yes we have to do a survey to see what is the impact that ultimately the coronavirus will have.”

The ILO projects that COVID-19 will eliminate the equivalent of 14 million jobs in Latin America and the Caribbean, and that among sectors which will be most at risk are the accommodation and food services, manufacturing, retail, and business and administrative activities.

Here in Guyana, public sector employees will continue to be paid their salaries, in accordance with a statement issued just last week by Minister of Finance Winston Jordan saying that the salaries of public sector employees, as well as old age pensions are guaranteed for the remainder of 2020.

JOB INSECURITY
But, for the private sector employees, it is their job security that is most in limbo, as well as that of the self-employed who could face a downturn in business.

Chairman of the Private Sector Commision (PSC), Gerry Gouveia has said that the PSC has been working along with the National COVID-19 Task Force, and that consideration ought to be given to citizens facing unemployment.

“We have to find a way to help employees being laid off from their jobs; that’s a huge problem that the country will have to face,” Gouveia said. “The PSC did submit an economic package to the government, and they are responding,” he added.

He commended the government’s temporary removal of Value Added Tax (VAT) from water and electricity, which will bring an ease to citizens as well as businesses.

Gouveia noted that the tourism sector is one of the industries most hard-hit by the business downturn that came about as a result of COVID-19.

“The tourism sector went from going at 100kph to zero kph. It is not the virus itself, as much as it is the shutdown and the precaution you have to take,” Gouveia said.
Globally, the tourism sector is one of the hardest hit sectors, due to the impact on both supply and demand from travel bans, stringent quarantine measures, and border closures as a result of the spread of COVID-19.

Since the outbreak first reared its ugly head in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the virus has spread to over 200 countries and territories across the globe, infecting over 1.6 million people, according the World Health Organisation (WHO).

As Chief Executive Officer of Roraima Group of Companies, which includes a domestic airline, two hotels and a conference centre, Gouveia’s own business would’ve also been negatively impacted by the pandemic, which first made its unwelcome presence felt here on March 11, inst.

COUNTRY ‘STATS’
Guyana has since recorded a total of 40 cases, inclusive of six deaths, according to the latest statistics as of last Friday.

Like many countries the world over, Guyana has implemented sweeping measures to stem the spread of the virus, including closing two major airports to international traffic, and restricting all public gatherings. Local travel has also been substantially curtailed.
According to the Guyana Tourism Authority (GTA), some 22,000 Guyanese rely directly or indirectly on travel and tourism. Based on detailed analysis surveying 36 per cent of the tourism sector, the GTA estimates that the overall economic impact from COVID-19 could see the loss of some $98.4B in export earnings in 2020.

The Authority estimates that this projected loss could result in as much as 50 per cent of tourism-related businesses closing their doors permanently, equating to as much as 30 percent of tourism sector employees losing their jobs, and an additional 36 per cent being furloughed or placed on unpaid leave.

The GTA has called on the Ministry of Finance and policymakers to work towards identifying low-cost financial support and supplemental financing options for the tourism sector over the near-term.

The ILO said that as of April 4 2020 its Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to host a series of virtual dialogue tables to address specific aspects of the crisis triggered by COVID-19, and collaborate to find concerted solutions that are adaptable to the realities of each the 33 countries in this particular trading bloc.

ALTERNATIVE ARRANGEMENTS

Minister Scott said the DoL has been engaging employers as much as is practically possible, and trying to work out alternative plans to laying off or terminating employees.
“We have asked employers and employees to check with us if they have any need for help, or have any difficulty. We have been giving some thought to how we can persuade those employers who have to lay off people if they can find a way to assist the employees who are coming off,” Minister Scott said, so, instead of no pay at all, find a way to give some recompense so that employees are not left empty-handed.”

He said that one suggestion that has been put to employers is to consider pay cuts in lieu of termination.

“For example, a person may be laid off for two weeks; we suggested to them in the first week, give 50%, then 40%, then 30% and so on. There is nothing for us to force employers to pay people, but we have been meeting and speaking with employers to see if we can show them a way in helping those persons who are being laid off. It’s a very tough situation, and we realise that employers themselves are not getting the income. But some of them have already given it some thought, in terms of relief packages,” Scott explained.
One such employer is the Guyana Telephone and Telegraph Company (GTT), where a 10 – 40 per cent pay cut was worked out as an alternative to laying off employees, notwithstanding some employees being at home due to store closures.