Need for more constructive debate

A CLICHE quote is Mark Twain’s about statistics. He says there are three types of lies: “lies, damn lies and statistics.”

To use this quote in a slightly different way, you could say what Twain is really trying to convey is, you’ll confuse people if you claim to be an expert, but do not deeply understand the issues you are speaking about. This is of course very much the case with statistics, which can be interpreted in so many ways, and seems also to be the case with the clauses of the ExxonMobil contract.

With the current administration releasing the oil contract the previous one signed with CGX, there is a great deal of confusion in the atmosphere. The terms of that contract are virtually the same as those in the Exxon contract, so does this mean that these are standard terms and those decrying the government are uninformed?

It is important for members of civil society always to question government actions, as this helps a democracy remain healthy, but the proliferation of “experts” on oil and gas that now inform national discourse does mean Guyanese need to take some opinions with a grain of salt. After all, how can we really tell who is an “expert,” and how much of an expert can someone be if this is their first real experience with the topic?

Even further, we are not often hearing such advocates explain why they see particular clauses as bad in an oil industry as well as local context. We are no experts, but we would suggest that the so-called “notorious clause” that restricts new taxes or other financial levies on Exxon and CGX in the future is there for many important reasons.
This is not to suggest such increases are bad or good, desirable or undesirable. Rather, we need to be very aware that these underlying issues are not being addressed by “expert” opinions in the media.

Condemning all criticisms of the contract is not the goal we must strive for, as it is important for constructive criticism to come through. But if we don’t address underlying arguments we will quickly find ourselves in deep difficulty. As an example, if we do not honour our contracts with Exxon, we can be taken to court.

Argentina was dragged through the courts for many years because it refused to honour contractual obligations, in this instance, national debt commitments. The consequence of this was that they were unable to similarly procure international funding. We can expect that other oil firms would be very hesitant to do business with Guyana if we did not honour our current contracts. We need to look closely at narratives and opinions in the media, and try to think through the implications of each point made in the oil-and-gas debate. Debate is good, and brings out the very best in the nation, but it can also end up just like Mark Twain’s statistics, even if the debaters don’t intend for this to happen.

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