2015: Year of seven elections in CARICOM

Analysis by Rickey Singh

WITH Trinidad and Tobago’s largest-ever post-Independence budget under her belt, and lots of so-called “goodies” for sharing all around, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar is increasingly demonstrating a leadership confidence that her primary political opponents would be carefully monitoring as they maintain boastful public posturings, with eyes fixed on new parliamentary elections next year, one of at least seven in 2015. Controversies seem set to continue over provisions of the Constitution (Amendment) Bill passed last month by Parliament, and awaiting the President’s assent. Much focus remains on the so-called “re-run” clause for candidates who fail to secure more than 50 per cent at elections. This constitutional provision, unique within CARICOM, would continue to attract attention by more than political parties and pundits across the Caribbean Community.
At this comparatively early stage, it seems that both CARICOM women Prime Ministers, who rose to power within a few months of each other (T&T’s Persad-Bissessar during 2010 and Jamaica’s Portia Simpson-Miller in 2011) would have good reason to be optimistic for a second five-year term. Of course, do not expect any such vibes from their opponents.

THE SEVEN
**Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, and Jamaica are three of the seven CARICOM countries where parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held, and, more significantly, with the likelihood of a second term for the incumbents. Other CARICOM states due for national elections next year would be Dominica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Suriname.
With the exception of Guyana and Suriname, where, respectively, Proportional Representation and a mix of PR and the First-Past-the-Post electoral systems prevail, throughout the Caribbean Community, governments are generally established on the basis of the winner-takes-all first-past-the post system — either by one or more Parties to ensure an overall parliamentary majority.

**In sharp contrast to Guyana, where the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) and the Peoples National Congress (PNC) have traditionally dominated governments (the former under both electoral systems, and the latter with PR and rigged elections), the prevailing first-time political scenario is that of the PPP(Civic) governing as a minority of 32 against an opposition coalition with a one-seat majority in the 65-member National Assembly.
Apart from being the sole English-speaking CARICOM State with the PR electoral system, Guyana also has the unflattering reputation of governance based on a quarter-century of documented rigged elections under the rule of the PNC of which the now late President Forbes Burnham was founder-leader.
Currently, there are intense manoeuvrings by the coalition of opposition parties, as well as by the governing PPP amid increasing indications of a snap general election, most likely in the first half of 2015, and with or without a new national budget, a sharp contrast to the prevailing scenario in Trinidad and Tobago.

**Across in Jamaica, Prime Minister Simpson-Miller has been confidently leading her administration with a comfortable majority, while representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintain watchful eyes as Finance Minister Peter Phillips — reputedly a future PNP leader — and securing occasional plaudits from the international financial institutions and representatives of the dominant private sector.

**Within the sub-region of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), new parliamentary elections are due in 2015 in Dominica, St. Kitts and Nevis, and St.Vincent and the Grenadines. The respective Prime Ministers of all three countries (Doiminica’s Roosevelt Skerritt; St.Kitts and Nevis’ Denzil Douglas; and Vincentian Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves) are currently quite optimistic of retaining state power.
While, in the case of St.Kitts and Nevis, there have been various occasions of bruising political confrontations amid speculations of the governing Labour Party losing its shaky majority, by contrast in the case of St.Vincent and he Grenadines Prime Minister Gonsalves has been adroitly managing political stability with a one-seat parliamentary majority. He remains confident of another five-year term in government.

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