UN expert demographer projected in 2010 43,539 on pension list


I  have noted certain arguments in recent reports in the press discussing the population of old age pensioners in Guyana.
Based on a study Mrs. Shiela Holder said she did, it has been posited by Mrs Holder, AFC Member of Parliament that there can only be 26, 360 persons older than 65 years old receiving pensions in  Guyana.

Mr. Sonkarley T. Beaie M.Phil , a United Nations expert Demographer did a population  projection for  the period 2005-2025 for  Guyana. This UN expert’s projections are contained in a paper that has been posted on the worldwide web on the website of the Guyana’s Bureau of Statistics. In the absence of  a census data this study is useful.
It must be noted that Mr. Beaie used the 2002 census figures as a basis for projections. He based his projections on the cohort-component model which involves the use of a known five-year age group in conjunction with various assumptions regarding age-specific mortality, fertility and net migration rates.
The UN expert demographer projects on page nine of his Population Projections study that in 2010 Guyana would most likely have 43,539 persons older than 65 years old.
I would like to compare his projection of the over 65 age groups for the projected period and compare those figures with actual number of old age pension recipients.
Male Female age 65 +

High Variant Medium Variant Low Variant Actual No.OAP Recipients
2005 36,455 36,667 36,667 33,438
2010 43,539 44,262 44,262 41,167

Please note that 41,167 persons are on record as having secured old age pensions as at June 2010. A summary figure as at the end of 2010 is still being processed.