– setting the Ceiling at 1.5 Celcius
(An abridged version of this article was carried in Monday’s edition of the Chronicle. The following is the full text of the article by Mr. Navin Chandarpal, written exclusively for this newspaper)

Chart showing changes in Global temperatures, sea-level and Northern Hemisphere snow cover between 1850- 2000. (Source: IPCC, 2007)

CLIMATE change is a reality. Until recently, the planet’s largest contributor to the change was, at the governmental level, in a state of denial together with a few other large contributors. Political changes in these countries have led to the welcome policy change of now accepting the reality.

The first round was won by Science. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ably led by the renowned Physicist Dr Rajendra Pachauri, won the Nobel Prize in 2007 for the outstanding results captured in their 4th Report. Their hard scientific facts were brilliantly related to the harsh socio-economic consequences of climate change by the renowned Economist, Prof Nicholas Stern.

As a result of these profound reports, there is no Government or Nation that can plead ignorance of the reality and the consequences of climate change and hence the need for decisive action.

The current round is now being fought over the meaning of “decisive action”.

In a preliminary fight in the previous decade, the result was a tie called the Kyoto Protocol. There were some good results for those who wanted to mitigate climate change but there were also big concessions to satisfy those whose vested interests were threatened by mitigation measures. Since this Protocol will end in 2012, the world is engaged in the process of developing a successor agreement.

Global annual emissions of anthropogenic GHGs from 1970 to 2004. (Source – IPCC, 2007)

Ideally, this is a tremendous opportunity to correct the mistakes of the past and to develop the framework for action that will be effective. The sad reality however is that there are still very powerful vested interests that are resisting the introduction of measures that are necessary to minimize the extent of climate change.

A key indicator of the extent of climate change is the global average surface temperature of the earth. An increase in this temperature is described as global warming. The extent to which our counties will be affected by climate change depends on the number of degrees by which the average temperature rises.

Among the key issues addressed in the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC are:

• The observed changes in climate.

• The causes of change

• The changes which have occurred in the concentration of greenhouse gases etc.

• Human activities which contribute to increases in greenhouse gases.

• The projected temperature rises related to varying greenhouse gas concentrations.

• The expected physical impacts resulting from different temperature increases.

The IPCC Report displays graphically the pattern of change in the global average surface temperature of the earth, the sea level and snow cover from the middle of the 19th century to the end of the 20th.
The top graph shows very clearly that the global average surface temperature has increased at a greater rate in the last few decades of the 20th century. This pattern has continued in this first decade of this century.

The IPCC concluded as reflected in these graphs that:
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.”

In considering the causes of climate change the IPCC examined the role of greenhouse gases and declared:

“Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.

“Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 parts per million (ppm) to 379 ppm in 2005. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores. The annual carbon dioxide concentration growth rate was larger during the last 10 years (1995–2005 average: 1.9 ppm per year), than it has been since the beginning of continuous direct atmospheric measurements (1960–2005 average: 1.4 ppm per year) although there is year-to-year variability in growth rates.”

The chart below shows the actual quantity of emissions of greenhouse gases in the years shown.

The actual emissions are measured in Giga-tonnes Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (GtCO2-eq). This type of increase results in the higher concentration over the years.

The IPCC has considered various scenarios in terms of the approaches to development and the varying results that are possible in terms of the levels of emissions. These scenarios are based on six ranges of GHG concentrations. The graph below shows the predicted range of annual emissions for the 21st century under each of these scenarios.

For each level of concentration there is an expected range of temperature rise shown in the chart below.

Combining these estimations, the IPCC developed an assessment for Surface warming under these scenarios reflected in the graph below.

The sad reality is that the current pattern of emissions will take our planet towards the higher levels of temperature rise. The task before the international community is to make the choices that will keep us at the lower end. This was expressed by Dr Pachuri when he said:

“If we take no action to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, then average temperature by the end of this century would increase anywhere from 1.1 degrees to 6.4 degrees C, with a best estimate at the lower end of 1.8 degrees and at the upper end of 4 degrees C.

The world is increasing its emissions at a rate that may take us to the upper end of the range projected, which implies a total increase in these two centuries of over 7 degrees C, that is, over 12 degrees Fahrenheit. Yet between 1970 and 2004 global GHG emissions increased by 70% and carbon dioxide by 80%. We must halt this unacceptable trend.

The IPCC has clearly specified that if temperature increase is to be limited to between 2.0 and 2.4° C, global emissions must peak no later than 2015. That is only six years from now. But the 2.0° ceiling too would lead to sea-level rise on account of thermal expansion alone of 0.4 to 1.4 meters. This increase added to the effect melting of snow and ice across the globe, could submerge several small island states in the Caribbean, those in the South Pacific and the Maldives islands.”

Based on this reality, the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS) is demanding that even the 2 degrees ceiling is not acceptable. The necessary target should be one and a half degree.

The current negotiations which will be intensified in Copenhagen must therefore be guided by the need to identify measures which will ensure that necessary ceiling.

The IPCC Report has also highlighted the severe impacts of every level of temperature rise as reflected in the table below.

The debate over the level of the ceiling is not a trivial matter. It is the central issue.

Climate change is real. It can no longer be denied. The accumulated effects of high concentrations of greenhouse gases will cause a continuation of global warming for several decades to come. The impacts of climate change are already being felt and will continue to be felt by all countries. But there can be control over the extent of the warming and hence the level of the impact. The task is to create the conditions and to take the required steps to restrict emissions to the lowest possible level. For this to happen, the temperature ceiling must be set at 1.5 Celcius.

(In a following article, we will look at measures such as energy options and incentives for avoided deforestation which are key to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.)