THE ruling ANC will win Wednesday’s general elections in South Africa because the party remains the most organised and respected of the lot contesting the elections. As I found when I was in South Africa last year, the party has mass appeal although there is a lot of disenchantment with it over its handling of run away crime and rising unemployment. People complain about growing corruption and revengeful policies but they do not consider the alternatives as capable of managing the affairs of the country. While the other parties are based on ethnicity and class, the ANC is a multi-national party with widespread appeal. Also, people like the ANC because of its connection with the freedom struggle. In addition, the iconic Nelson Mandela has urged voters to stay the course with the party.

South Africa’s election is similar to ours in Guyana in that it has a PR system to elect a national assembly of 400 members. Unlike Guyana, the MPs choose the President for a five-year period.

In the last election, the ANC won 70% of the seats. Its numbers are projected to go down because some prominent members of the party left to form their own party and may take about 5% support away from the ANC. The ANC may also lose support from Indian voters who have expressed disenchantment with the party’s inability to contain crimes against them. But the ANC will make gains from the Zulu based party and several prominent Indians are backing the ANC’s Presidential candidate Jacob Zuma.

Polls are showing a low turnout with nearly a third of the voters still undecided. I doubt they will move away from the ANC. The party will win but getting a two-thirds majority may be an uphill task.
VISHNU BISRAM